4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again

JOHN RICE ASSOCIATE BROKER | REALTOR

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | Simplifying The Market

With home prices rising again this year, some are concerned that we may be repeating the 2006 housing bubble that caused families so much pain when it collapsed. Today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago. There are four key metrics that explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Mortgage Debt
  4. Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Frank Nothaft is the Chief Economist for CoreLogic (which compiles some of the best data on past, current, and future home prices). Nothaft recently explained:

“Even though CoreLogic’s national home price index got to the same level it was at the prior peak in April of 2006, once you account for inflation over the ensuing 11.5 years, values are still about 18% below where they were.” (emphasis added)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Some are concerned that banks are once again easing lending standards to a level similar to the one that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI). According to the Urban Institute:

“The HCAI measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

The graph below reveals that standards today are much tighter on a borrower’s credit situation and have all but eliminated the riskiest loan products.

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | Simplifying The Market

3. MORTGAGE DEBT

Back in 2006, many homeowners mistakenly used their homes as ATMs by withdrawing their equity and spending it with no concern for the ramifications. They overloaded themselves with mortgage debt that they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) repay when prices crashed. That is not occurring today.

The best indicator of mortgage debt is the Federal Reserve Board’s household Debt Service Ratio for mortgages, which calculates mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable personal income.

At the height of the bubble market a decade ago, the ratio stood at 7.21%. That meant over 7% of disposable personal income was being spent on mortgage payments. Today, the ratio stands at 4.48% – the lowest level in 38 years!

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

With both house prices and mortgage rates on the rise, there is concern that many buyers may no longer be able to afford a home. However, when we look at the Housing Affordability Index released by the National Association of Realtors, homes are more affordable now than at any other time since 1985 (except for when prices crashed after the bubble popped in 2008).

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

After using four key housing metrics to compare today to 2006, we can see that the current market is not anything like the bubble market.

So how does this impact you right now? Message us so we can discuss:

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Source: Michigan Real Estate Updates

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We moved to the Grand Rapids area 11 years ago and John was very patient as we found our first home and made the experience absolutely seamless! When we were ready to sell and buy again we knew to reach out to John. As we remembered and appreciated, John is an absolute professional and was and advocate for our best interests at all times during this wild market. We found great value in our new home and he helped us get top dollar for our sale. Grateful to have him on our side though the whole process. You won’t be disappointed!
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We have worked with John to sell 1 home and buy 2 homes and he is an incredible realtor! He is professional, prompt with communication, honest and patient. We had quite the list for what we were looking for and John was always available to answer questions and get us in to look at a home. His knowledge and connections in the industry made both the buying and selling process go smoothly. We simply cannot recommend John enough!
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We can’t say enough good things about John. He is an awesome realtor! We bought our home with his help and just recently sold it with his help. He is highly knowledgeable about the Grand Rapids area market and his expertise and professionalism has shown through both times we worked with him...John is a wonderful communicator and a genuine person. His sincerity has been evident in his commitment to making the purchase and sale experience as seamless and informed as possible. We consider ourselves incredibly fortunate to have worked with John and strongly recommend him without reservation!
E&T VanBuskirk
Purchased and sold with John, he is: Professional, an extremely good communicator, precise, and acted on our behalf 24/7. He kept us up to date on listings for purchase and preparation advice for selling our home. He was knowledgeable about neighborhoods. Photography for sale of our house was impressive. We were appreciative of the guidance regarding making offers, inspections, when to list our home, writing contracts, detailed review and presentation of offers on our home and being realistic about our purchase of new home. Great experience, Great Realtor.
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John Rice is hands down one of the best realtors in the Grand Rapids and surrounding areas. We have utilized him as our realtor on two separate occasions, once over 10 years ago, and again over the last several months to buy/sell. He is incredibly knowledgeable and uses his expertise to help guide you in your choices throughout the realty process. He is professional, kind, has impeccable attention to detail, responsive, and clearly loves what he does. Choose John for your realty needs…he is the best of the best!
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